Sacking form? Pardew v Press
It has been widely reported that banners were waved demanding the sacking of Pardew. The crowd voiced the same sentiment whilst Pardew blamed the press for stirring up feeling.
From a supporter`s point of view, the obvious answer is Pardew`s poor form as manager. Home supporters have seen 2 goals in the last 8 games, both of them injury time winners. Travelling supporters have fared a little better, seeing 7 go in, also in 2 matches, 3 at West Ham and 4 at Hull.
The sad fact is that in 75% of the last 16 games, Pardew has been unable to set up his team to score. Those 16 games have yielded 13 points
It isn`t the first time that Pardew has seen his side slump. He was sacked by West Ham 17 games into a season. His side then were on 14 points, the same number that a draw on Saturday against Swansea would give him.
Similarly, he was sacked at Charlton 18 games into a season. One win in the next two games would see him emulate Charlton`s tally of 16.
There are some interesting comparisons to be made. The current slump is reminiscent of Bill McGarry`s last full season at Newcastle United. Top of the league on New Year`s Day in January 1980, McGarry`s team went on to record 2 wins in 18 to finish the season in 9th place.
There are differences between those two great managers. McGarry`s run saw 9 defeats in 18 games, with 7 draws. Pardew has lost more, won more, drawn fewer and lost more. At least McGarry`s team scored 5 more and conceded 4 fewer. The sack followed early in the following season.
4 games into the next season, McGarry was unable to halt the decline.
Even if we stretch Pardew`s run back to 18 games, that includes two more wins, at home against Palace and 9 man Stoke. That would put his team on 19 points in the form run.
The statistics below have all been adapted to the current points scoring system, i.e. 3 for a win.
It is interesting to look back at previous Newcastle managers and see what has earned the sack. Jim Smith honourably resigned in March 1991 having made the equivalent of 28 points from his last 18 games. Souness got the boot with 4 over the same period. Ashley set a precedent with Sam Allardyce, who managed 21 from 18 and whose tedious style of play earned his side 3 more goals than Pardew`s.
Pardew`s current level from 18 games is similar to Ossie Ardiles with 19 points, gained through significantly more attractive football. Failure to win either of the next two, against Swansea or Arsenal would drop Pardew into Dalglish and Roeder territory, 17 points from 18 games. Reports in the press from Freddie Shepherd make it a fact that he would sack managers with that sort of form.
Have there been any worse managers statistically than those? The answer is yes, Richard Dinnis who was elevated as a popular players` choice in the wake of Gordon Lee. Poor Dinnis had never been a manager before and had only given up his PE teaching job a few years earlier. His last 18 would have yielded 11 points under today`s system.
One win from the next two games would also put him marginally above Willie McFaul`s total of 15 from his last 18.
How Pardew Fares Against The Rest
Pardew has some other records all of his own: the first Newcastle manager to lose 3 in a row against Sunderland with 2 at home, joint biggest losing home run against Sunderland for over 100 years, the 6-0 against Liverpool being the biggest home defeat for the same period, the run of 4 home losses without scoring being unprecedented.
He has certainly left his mark and if his predecessors are anything to go by, his head is already on the chopping block. If Ashley wants to protect his investment, Pardew is surely only two games from the sack.
As an aside, McGarry's famous nosedive in form saw the penultimate home game of the 1979-80 season host Swansea on 19th April. The visitors walking away with a 3-1 win. McGarry and Pardew have so much in common, so far.
Reproduced by kind permission of toontoon.co.uk
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